The rate of property price inflation has generally halved across Ireland over the past 12 months, according to figures published today by How Much Is Your House Worth? 2023, the Irish Independent’s 10th annual property price survey by Micromarket.
His year over year growth is typically in the order of 5pc to 7pc as compared to 10pc plus a year ago. And with the current conditions, most agents are predicting a sub 5pc growth for the coming year, with some even predicting no change in local property prices for 2023.
A number of factors have combined to cool the market over the past 12 months, not least rising interest rates, rising building costs (which affects homes that need work) and the departure of landlords from the market, which has increased supply Is . Lastly, many regional estate agents downplayed the ‘Covid Surge’, a temporary rush to buy in areas from late 2020 to 2021, which led to huge inflation in some counties.
After the first half of 2022, most locations experienced a dramatic slowdown from September.
With inflation now cut in half in most places, low single-digit growth is being predicted for the coming year as rising interest rates are balanced by a somewhat sustained deficit and more relaxed lending regime.
And while property prices may not be falling generally in any one market right now, in many places certain types of homes have already fallen in price.
The types affected depend heavily on what is happening locally. For example, rising construction costs for upgrades and retrofitting coupled with the rising cost of fossil fuel domestic heating have had a negative impact on very large homes in need of work in many older urban suburbs.
In other markets, there has been a spurt in apartment prices as those that are now unsold are hitting the market in higher numbers than before, a preferred option for investors. More apartments for sale means lower prices or at least a curb on inflation.
And while investors have been busy selling apartments, news over the past few years about fire safety failures in Celtic Tiger era units and the huge cost of fixing them means first time buyers are becoming more wary of second-hand apartments and Many look for cottages and terraces instead. This also has an impact on apartment values in some places, but not all.
In other places where the shortage was more pronounced, apartment prices rose at the same rate as everything else.
The easing of the so-called ‘Covid surge’ has hit some of the most outrageous local inflation seen in the past year with Wexford, Tipperary, South Wicklow and Roscommon all experiencing price increases of more than 15pc.
The most popular property types for buyers have declined sharply in many counties. Where new remote working family buyers were flocking to take up large homes over 2,000 square feet, we now see a different kind of crunch and out-of-towners are forced to look for smaller homes in rural areas with some land attached. There is a search.
An important nationwide pattern shown in our data is evidence that the mass market exodus of small landlords as a result of higher taxes and rent caps is certainly not confined to cities. Agents in towns across Ireland are reporting that landlords selling account for between 20pc and a third of all properties being put up for sale.
It must also be added that a good number of these sellers are so-called ‘reluctant’ landlords who have been stuck in negative equity for a long time, who have restored their equity with the recent price hike. These would probably have sold out in any case.
Meanwhile, as small landlords move out, our survey also highlights the worst shortage of rental housing in our cities, and indeed, in many towns, particularly Limerick where at any one time Only a few houses are offered.
And while many estate agencies are forecasting zero growth for 2023, the fact that there is a huge shortage of properties in many countries means that further inflation in 2023 cannot be ruled out.
In places such as Longford, Leitrim, Cavan and Monaghan, the cost of building a new home is still much higher than the price of an old property, meaning no new property is likely in the near future and this will keep prices down House. The continuing rise in construction costs pushes new home launches further into the future.
Finally, our nationwide survey shows that rising building material costs and domestic heating costs are already starting to create a dual market in many counties and Dublin postcodes, leading to an increase in older properties with C and lower BER ratings and those turnkey The price gap is opening up. Properties where retrofitting has already been done.
Banks are already considering retrofit costs when deciding how much to lend and as time goes on, the cost of heating a home is likely to become a factor.
Where prices will go in the coming year will depend on the balance between interest rates, cost of living and construction costs on the one hand, and scarcity and scarcity on the other.
So amidst all this flux and change, how much is your home really worth in 2023? How much are they worth?
How to Use ‘How Much is Your Home Worth’
To determine your home’s value, first look at your particular micro market. Dublin is first and is listed in order of its postcode. Even numbers go first (starting at Dublin 2), then odd numbers (Dublin 1 and upwards) followed by North Counties, South Counties and West Counties.
We list the other Leinster counties under the dark blue color code. Under a red color code, Munster comes together with the city and county markets of Cork, Limerick and all of Munster County.
These are followed by Connaught Market, including colour-coded green, and Galway City. Finally, we list the Ulster counties. These pages have an orange color code.
In our tables we have listed the most common types of property first. These usually (but not always) include three and four bed semis in the cities and three and four bed bungalows in the counties.
Trace through the table to find your asset type. You’ll see our appraiser’s estimate of how much an average edition in the area would sell for today. Here you will also find last year’s valuation estimate for this property type and what the local auctioneer believes this type to be worth a year from now based on prevailing conditions in your local market.
Although we list the better known locations or largest population centers at the top of each market, all locations in the county/postcode are included in the research. In some cases (such as Terenure or Portarlington) the locations cross more than one postcode or county. You will then find an in-depth analysis for each micromarket based on our local appraiser’s views and local market factors.
You will find an overall ‘average price’ listed for your local market. This figure is based on the average price of a group of the most exclusive property types in the area. Where there are too few property types to list in our tables, we have omitted these – for example, there are no two storey over-basement properties listed in Dublin 10 (Ballyfermot).
How much is the house worth to you? 2023 is an opinion-based survey built on the professional and informed opinion of local experts as to what an average version of each property type listed would sell for today.
It is not scientifically compiled. But because how much is your house worth? 2023 is calculated over a period during which prices do not change (from the week immediately before Christmas to early January), is accurate to date and these prices are current; Unlike other barometers based on prices or on old mortgage data.
All figures are based on the ‘average of the average’ of all existing housing stock in the mentioned geographic locations. So if your home is located in a better or less healthy part of your postcode or county, you’ll need to account for those differences on your own.
Certain asset types and markets sometimes exhibit trends that defy the norm. Where possible, we have pointed out these irregularities. For example, if two-bed terraces are more expensive than three-bed terraces, it may be because the former are all located in a more expensive part of the postcode/county. Where a market is too large to be covered by the expertise of one agent (eg, Donegal), we enlist the help of two.
Where highly priced enclaves skew the average significantly, we have isolated them and treated them separately (Killarney and Clontarf). Where imbalances or inaccuracies have occurred historically, or when we have changed local experts, we have retrospectively readjusted our data to bring it into line. Each report is accompanied by a picture of a property that has been sold in the last 12 months and has a price publicly listed on the Property Value Register.
You can use our value guide to value not only your home but properties across Ireland – making this publication perfect for those looking to buy a holiday home, an investment property or, indeed, homes Let’s imagine getting a good nose at values. by others.
So how much is your home worth in 2023? How much are they worth? Only the Irish Independent has the answers.